Voxpop in Newcastle

2 Sep 2010

This is me talking about my session on the “limits to growth” on Sunday 22 August at the three-day Great Debate event in Newcastle.

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My relatively sparse posting recently has nothing to do with a summer news lull. In fact there is a fair amount I could write about. I am simply preparing for a week of book promotion in America starting on 13 September. If anyone has any ideas on what I should do when I am there I would appreciate it.

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Cover story on RCM

31 Aug 2010

Real Clear Markets has picked up my latest Fund Strategy cover story on whether the world economy entered a new era with the financial crisis of 2008.

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My latest cover story for Fund Strategy is a critique of the idea that the world entered a new economic era as a result of the recent financial crisis.

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This is my latest comment from Fund Strategy.

Ed Balls, a Labour leadership contender, lived up to his name in his speech attacking “growth deniers” (PDF)  last week. He also showed the superficiality of his understanding of economics despite his long association with Gordon Brown (or perhaps because of it) and impressive academic credentials in the subject.

The main point of Balls’ speech was to present an alternative to the arguments of the Conservative-Liberal coalition’s economic vision. In his view the fiscal stimulus should continue for longer than the government suggests and deficit reduction should be implemented over a more protracted period.

For its reluctance to continue the stimulus he accuses the government of consisting of “growth deniers”. This is in turn a riposte to George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, who has lambasted the opposition as “deficit deniers”.

Despite the vituperative language there is less difference between the two sides than might initially appear. The childish name-calling obscures the similarity of their overall visions. And the deliberate echo of the term “Holocaust denial” makes their squabbling particularly distasteful.

Theirs is essentially an argument about the timing of deficit reduction. Osborne wants to start it a bit sooner and get it over with a bit more quickly. Balls wants to start later and spread it over a longer period.

It is also easier for Balls to make such pronouncements now that he is out of government. He can afford to make a big deal out of small differences.

In any case both sides heavily emphasise the consumption side of the economy. Their focus is on imposing austerity, through cuts in public or tax rises, rather than boosting production.

Neither makes a priority of restructuring the economy to make a new round of strong growth possible. Balls’ reference to “growth” refers instead to pumping money into the economy for slightly longer than his political opponents would like.

Balls does make a passing mention of Labour schemes to create jobs and build schools. But none of them constitutes a route to bolstering the economy to raise productivity levels. Nor is there any talk of large-scale investment in infrastructure or encouraging innovation.

At least there is one consolation from Balls’ shallow critique of the Conservative-Liberal austerity programme. It is to be hoped that having such lightweight leadership contenders will hasten the demise of a party that plays no useful political role.

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Articles of note

29 Aug 2010

Progressives against progress, City Journal, by Fritz Siegel. How American liberals have turned against progress since 1970.

Genome breakthrough heralds dawn of new era for agriculture, Independent, by Steve Connor. The isolation of the genome of the wheat plant could have hugely positive implications for agriculture.

Growth in a Buddhist economy, Project Syndicate, by Jeffrey Sachs. Another leading public intellectual romanticises Bhutan and its goal of gross national happiness.

Ecological footprints – a good idea gone bad, whatsupwiththat, by Willis Eschenbach.

We’re not wreckers. We just think the Spirit Level is bad social science, Guardian, by Peter Saunders and Christopher Snowdon.

Reasons for food price war thin on the ground, Fund Strategy, by Will Jackson. An interview with Robert Paarlberg, the author of food Politics: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford University Press).

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The 2010 Prix Pictet photography prize, sponsored by a Swiss private bank, will be on economic growth as a blessing and a curse. Given that the honorary president of Prix Pictet is Kofi Annan, the secretary general of the United Nations, and the chairman of this year’s jury is Professor Sir David King, a former chief scientific adviser to the British government, it is not hard to guess in which direction it will lean.

Earth and Water were the previous two topics of the annual Prix Pictet in sustainability and photography.

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The Sloman Economics news site has included a link to my critique of Joseph Stiglitz’s “new economic paradigm” (see Monday’s post) on its latest post. The site is a useful blog with regular items on key economic topics as well as a valuable hotlinks page. John Sloman, a professor at Bristol University, is the author of two popular textbooks on economics and co-author of two more.

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I have spent much of this week writing a critique of the argument that the 2008 crisis propelled the developed economies into a new era (I will post the finished article next week). I was therefore particularly interested to come across a paper by F Halsey Rogers, a senior economist at the World Bank, on The Global Financial Crisis and Development Thinking.

In broad terms the paper confirms my impression that the crisis reinforced the Post-Washington Consensus (which emphasises the needs for states and markets in developing countries to work together) rather than leading to the creation of a new set of ideas. As he puts it:

“In short, there has already been widespread rethinking of the neoliberal approach to development in the development community, including in the corridors of power, since at least the mid-1990s.”

The article also includes many useful references.

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This is my latest comment from Fund Strategy.

Imagine if Sir Alex Ferguson had the gall to present himself as a marginal figure in world football. Despite managing Manchester United, winning the European Champions’ league twice, the Premier League numerous times, he claimed to have little influence on the game. Such a suggestion would, quite rightly, be ­dismissed as preposterous.

Yet Joseph Stiglitz’s frequent portrayal of himself as an economic rebel is equally absurd. The Columbia University professor is a Nobel laureate, former chairman of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers and chief economist at the World Bank. His full 57-page CV, which details many more honours, is available on the internet.

The thrust of Stiglitz’s argument, restated in the Financial Times (FT) last week, is that the economics profession bears much of the blame for the recent recession. Its flawed models led regulators and policymakers to assume that markets were efficient and self-regulating. Central bankers paid too much attention to consumer price inflation rather than the dangers of asset price bubbles. Policymakers failed to predict the crisis, and when it hit they were too sanguine about its consequences.

There are several problems with Stiglitz’s argument. First, it underestimates the influence of alternative approaches to economics. For instance, many recent Nobel laureates reject the free market model. In addition to Stiglitz these include George Akerlof, Daniel Kahneman, Paul Krugman, Amartya Sen, Michael Spence and Vernon Smith.

Second, it overestimates the influence of economic theory on policy. Central bankers and policy­makers primarily reacted to events rather than attempting to shape them. Indeed their indecisive response had more to do with a lack of guiding principles than blind faith in flawed ideas.

Third, it underestimates the importance of structural economic factors. Rather than focus on the weaknesses of regulators, Stiglitz would do better to examine weaknesses in the global economies.

Finally, he exaggerates the novelty of his ideas. Although he wants to move away from assumptions such as perfect rationality, his alternative economics is not as different as he would like us to believe.

Stiglitz ended his FT article by suggesting a new economic paradigm is needed. He used the analogy of the shift during the Renaissance to seeing the sun rather than the earth as the centre of the solar system.

He appears to forget that Galileo Galilei was found guilty of heresy for promoting such a view. It seems safe to assume that, despite his subversive pretensions, Stiglitz will not suffer a similar fate.

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My new book defending economic growth, Ferraris For All, has been published and is available for order at major online retailers. Please see the Buy the book page for more details.