Someone has correctly pointed out that the money from the Visa affinity card mentioned in the last post goes to the Nation magazine rather than Occupy Wall Street (OWS) itself. It supports OWS by promoting its Move Your Money scheme. However, I think the broader point still stands. Supporting smaller businesses against larger ones is in line with OWS’s outlook.
This blog post was first published on Fundweb today.
[Also note correction at end]
I get loads of dodgy emails ostensibly offering me the chance to enlarge various body parts and buy performance enhancing drugs but this one was genuine: an invitation to apply for an Occupy Wall Street (OWS) Visa card.
This is not a belated April Fools’ joke or some kind of clever metaphor. It is literally true. It is possible to donate to OWS by taking out a Visa affinity card.
My invitation came in a circular email letter from Peggy Randall, the associate publisher of the Nation, an American magazine akin to the New Statesman in Britain. To quote her first line verbatim :
“Show your support for OWS’s Move Your Money Relay by applying for The Nation Magazine Platinum Visa® Rewards Card from UMB Bank of Kansas City.”
After the initial surprise I decided to investigate. It turns out that UMB Bank was recommended by the Move Your Money Project, an organisation that campaigns for Americans to “Invest in Main Street, Not Wall Street …”. The idea was hatched at a pre-Christmas dinner in 2009 involving Arianna Huffington, a multi-millionaire and media mogul, and Rob Johnson, a former fund manager at Soros Fund Management. One of the organisation’s promotional videos uses footage from It’s A Wonderful Life, a 1946 film directed by Frank Capra, which features James Stewart as an inspirational local banker.
The American organisation has inspired a British equivalent; Move Your Money UK. Its website features a video with scenes from Mary Poppins in which the children run into unscrupulous bankers.
Not surprisingly the idea of an OWS credit card has angered some left wing commentators. Doug Henwood, a widely respected economic commentator, has even investigated UMB Bank to show that it is not the small-scale institution that the Nation apparently assumes. He criticises it on several grounds:
“It’s yet another iteration of the classic Money Mover’s institution: flush with more money than it can invest locally, it loads up on securities … According to its latest annual report, 46% of UMB’s money is invested in securities, and another 6% is on deposit with other banks – which comes to over half. They don’t provide details on the securities, but they’re almost certainly a mix of Treasury bonds, mortgage bonds, and corporate bonds – utterly conventional financial market stuff. Just 37% is out in loans – and 0.8% in small-business loans, beloved of the small bank fanclub. They are big regional players in mutual funds, wealth management, and private banking, all moderately to seriously upscale stuff. And, like the big guys, they’re looking to make more money out of fees, rather than traditional deposit-taking and loan-making.”
Henwood does not criticise the Nation for trying to raise money. His point is that the magazine, although a critic of finance, is at the same time sowing illusions in financial institutions.
On reflection, though, it seems to me that the OWS Visa card is utterly appropriate. It draws out the real character of the OWS protests.
Both the supporters and opponents of OWS are wrong to assume that the protestors are in any way subversive. If anything their ideal is for slightly smaller regional institutions rather than larger international ones.
They have the perspective of small- or medium-sized businessmen who want to compete against larger companies. There is nothing inherently wrong with such rivalry but it is misleading to present it as representing a radical movement.
Correction 25 April. Someone has correctly pointed out that the money from this scheme goes to the Nation magazine rather than Occupy Wall Street itself. It supports OWS by promoting its Move Your Money scheme. However, I think the broader point still stands. Supporting smaller businesses against larger ones is in line with the outlook of OWS.
This is my Perspective column for this week’s issue of Fund Strategy.
The publication of a huge volume of official reports and data always makes April an exciting time of year for us economic geeks. But anyone with even a passing interest in economics and finance can glean insights from this huge range of freely available information.
Although investment intermediaries have access to material from fund groups this has its drawbacks. For a start, few private institutions can have access to the huge amount of resources available to international organisations. The International Monetary Fund (www.imf.org ), for example, employs 2,400 people from 187 countries. Many of them are economics and data professionals. The World Bank is even bigger still with over 10,000 employees from around the world. Both organisations publish throughout the year but there is always a rush in the run-up to their main meetings in April and October.
Information from fund management houses is also of variable quality. There are some astute commentators but many others are superficial. Fund groups are also generally wary of publishing reports that might conflict with their commercial interests. For instance, if they were promoting a fund investing in a particular market it would be a brave group that published a report critical of that country.
This is not to say that the reports from international organisations are perfect. A big drawback is that criticisms of economic problems are often muted. Evidently the internal versions of some reports are much more hard-hitting than those published for general consumption.
Nevertheless there is a mass of free and valuable information available to the public at the click of a mouse. Much of it is also fairly accessible. Often data can also be easily downloaded on to Excel spreadsheets for analysis or use in presentations. Here is a guide to some of the most useful sites.
The IMF has a huge library of reports and data available to the public. Perhaps the most important is the World Economic Outlook – commonly known as the “Weo” – published in April and October every year. In broad terms the Weo is divided into two parts. Every issue includes a comprehensive review of developments in the global economy along with economic forecasts.
There are also analytical chapters that examine different themes in every issue. For instance, the new report has a chapter dealing with household debt and another focusing on commodity prices (those investing in natural resources take note). The IMF also publishes shorter Weo updates every six months to revise its forecast and provide more up-to-date data.
Information from these reports is regularly integrated into a Weo Database that is available to access online. This is perhaps the most valuable resource of all. It enables users to download data on many indicators for all the IMF member states over a long period. For instance, it would be a simple matter to plot, say, the value of French oil imports or the rate of Brazilian inflation from 1980s to the most recently available estimates. It is also possible to generate forecasts for several years into the future although, as with all predictions, these should be handled with care.
Nor does this exhaust the valuable reports available from the IMF. Its twice-yearly Global Financial Stability Report is likely to be useful to anyone who follows the financial sector.
The Fiscal Monitor should to be of use to those following government finances and fixed interest markets. There are also Regional Economic Outlooks for those interested in particular parts of the world.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (www.oecd.org ) is stingier with its reports than the IMF and its membership is restricted to richer countries. Nevertheless there is a large amount of free information and data on its site.
For instance, it provides regular detailed reports on its member states, and some large non-member states, with fairly detailed summaries freely available. It also produces a detailed global Economic Outlook every six months and a mass of thematic reports on such topics as economic growth. There is also a mass of statistical data on subjects ranging from agriculture to youth unemployment.
For those interested in international trade the World Trade Organization (www.wto.org ) has plenty on its site. These include international trade statistics providing a detailed analysis on such topics as the leading traders, trade by sector and product, and regional trade. Trade data can also point to broader trends in the global economy. So according to the latest WTO release the rate of increase of world trade fell from 13.8% in 2010 to 5.0% in 2011 with only 3.7% expected this year. This fall would seem to confirm other indicators suggesting that global economic growth is slowing.
The most striking statistics of all for those who follow emerging economies come from the World Bank (www.worldbank.org ). Like the IMF it provides a mass of freely available reports and data on its global membership. Although it has information on developed countries the focus is on developing countries. It has a library of 80,000 free, downloadable documents on its website with records from 1946 to the present.
Highlights include its annual World Development Report and the World Development Indicators database with a huge range of data on 216 economies from 1960 onwards. A few years ago, outside of large organisations and university libraries, it was only possible to dream of access to such data.
Web technology enables individuals to rapidly search through this mass of information to find what is valuable to them. Even an individual working on his own has instant access to what is in effect a massive library.
The next surge in the publication of official reports will be in October. Speaking for the geeks I cannot wait.
This second box from my recent Fund Strategy cover story on responsible capitalism shows outlines the free market opposition to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The point is not to endorse this outlook but to contrast it with what has become the mainstream view.
The free market view of capitalism involves the explicit rejection of what is sometimes called “enlightened self-interest”. Its advocates, who are few in number, argue that businesses should focus on their core business of making profits. This perspective does not reject philanthropic initiatives, on the contrary it welcomes them, but seems them as a proper matter for individuals rather than companies.
Free marketeers take their inspiration from Adam Smith who in The Wealth of Nations, his classic work published in 1776, argued that: “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity, but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities, but of their advantages.”
In other words, Smith argues that society progresses precisely because firms pursue their own interests rather than because they are willing to go beyond their commercial concerns. Critics of free market economics often counter that this quote was not representative of Smith’s overall view.
The best-known modern advocate of the free market view was Milton Friedman. In Capitalism and Freedom (1962) he argued that: “there is one and only one social responsibility of business – to use it resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.” In his view the proper role of corporate management was to represent the interests of the owners of companies. Friedman, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 1976, died in 2006.
One of the most articulate living advocates of this view is David Henderson, a former head of economics and statistics at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. In Misguided Virtue (2001) he makes many telling criticisms of CSR. In his view its advocates lack a proper understanding of the market economy and particularly its considerable social benefits. The imposition of CSR undermines its strengths by bringing higher costs and lower profits.
This box from my recent Fund Strategy cover story on responsible capitalism shows that business is anxious to regulate itself. It is not a straightforward matter of regulation being imposed by an interventionist state.
Strict rules on corporate governance have been institutionalised in Britain through a succession of business-backed reports. This is a selection of some of the main ones.
1992 – Cadbury report. The report committee was set up in May 1991 by the Financial Reporting Council, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the accounting profession. Its main focus was on the role of boards and auditing. The chairman, Sir Adrian Cadbury, was for many years the chairman of the confectionary company that bore his family name and a director of the Bank of England.
1995 – Greenbury report. The remit of the report was to examine the remuneration of directors. Its chairman, Sir Richard Greenbury, was the chairman of Marks & Spencer.
1998 – Hampel report. The committee was sponsored by the Confederation of British Industry, the Institute of Directors, the LSE and other organisations. Its remit was to review the impact of the Cadbury and Greenbury initiatives. The chairman of the committee, Sir Ronald Hampel, also chaired ICI at the time.
1999 – Turnbull report. The report focused on internal controls within companies. Its chairman was the finance director of the Rank Organisation.
2003 – Higgs report. Focused on the role of non-executive directors within companies. Its recommendations included the separation of the roles of chief executive and chairman within companies.
2005 – An updated version of the Turnbull report was published.
This is the main text of my Fund Strategy cover story published on Monday. I have restored the original introductory paragraph that for some reason was edited out of the published version. I will post the boxes that go along with the article over the next few days.
An unprecedented hostility to business has recently enveloped contemporary society. That may seem a strange thing to say given an earlier history of two centuries of socialist agitation. But today’s anti-corporate culture, with its hostility to big business in particular, takes peculiar and convoluted forms.
Admittedly hardly anyone, even among the Occupy protestors, is calling for an overthrow of the capitalist system. Nor are there any credible alternatives to the market economy on the horizon. Instead, there is a powerful impulse to restrain business activity at work.
This drive to curb business is expressed in many different ways. Recently some leading British politicians have made calls for “responsible capitalism”, implying that many forms of capitalism are irresponsible. Companies are constantly being implored to behave in ethical, fair and sustainable ways, while avoiding greed and excess.
Such terms are not simply words describing particular forms of behaviour. They usually come with demands for more prescriptive regulations attached. But it would be wrong to see such initiatives as simply being imposed on companies by power-hungry politicians. On the contrary, the political discussion runs parallel with a debate inside business itself.
The talk of responsible business should not be dismissed as “greenwash”: firms engaging in cynical public relations spin to promote their ethical credentials.
The new forms of regulation take many guises. Companies have to accept elaborate corporate governance codes, respect sustainability and behave ethically. Risk management has also become a central part of their activity. Although the drive to restrain business exists across the developed world, this article will focus on Britain.
First, it will examine the discussion about responsible capitalism among political leaders and their intellectual backers. The striking thing about the debate is the extent of overlap between the main parties, rather than what divides them. All argue that firms often behave irresponsibly, that remuneration can be excessive and that there is a danger of businesses corrupting the political system. Banks, in particular, are seen as the epitome of this culture of greed.
Next, it will look more closely at the debate within business itself, especially in relation to discussions on corporate governance codes, risk management and social responsibility.
Then it will put the present round of regulations into context by comparing it with the past. Although politicians typically claim to sit within longstanding traditions, many recent developments are unprecedented.
Finally, it will draw conclusions about the damaging impact of the culture of business restraint. Contemporary attacks on business rarely take a direct form. In the absence of an alternative to the market economy, it is hard to imagine a world without companies playing a central role. Instead, corporate activity is routinely viewed with anxiety and often condemned for its alleged excess. This leads to a drive to constrain firms in numerous ways rather than a call to abolish business.
Not all businesses are regarded with equal disdain in this discussion. On the contrary, small companies are often lauded as local and sustainable. In contrast large firms, particularly those with substantial international activities, elicit a great deal of distrust.
Banks, particularly investment banks, are commonly seen as the worst of all. They are widely viewed as players in a giant casino, with no compunction about using ordinary people as chips in their power games. Banks are perceived to be undermining the fabric of society by institutionalising corruption and greed.
This range of charges against business is often made indirectly. It is embodied in several different, although related, discussions. By examining some of the main ones, it is possible to start discerning the patterns at work.
Many leading politicians, from the prime minister down, have made several calls for responsible capitalism in recent years. All the main parties are intent on emphasising that business should behave properly.
Perhaps the best place to start is the Conservative party. Historically, the Tories have always been the party closest to Britain’s business community. Even today, Conservative leaders are eager to emphasise their pro-business credentials. But a closer examination of contemporary Conservatism shows its support for business comes with numerous caveats.
Take David Cameron’s speech in 2009 to the World Economic Forum in Davos, when he was still the leader of the opposition. Back then, he talked of “updating the old free-market orthodoxy”. He identified three main reasons why capitalism had become so unpopular.
From these premises he drew conclusions about changes needed to society and to business in particular. “That is what I mean by responsible business,” he said. “Business helping to create a society that is greener, safer, fairer – and where opportunity is more equal. Business helping to create a society that is more family-friendly, where responsibility and power are decentralised, and where we value and build up the institutions of the public realm and civic society.”
The striking thing about this framework is its considerable overlap with that demanded by self-proclaimed critics of capitalism. Indeed, given these points alone, without the speaker’s name, many would probably assume it came from an Occupy activist. Yet Cameron’s speech was made more than two years before the Occupy protests began. All the key elements are widely viewed as radical today: its focus on social inequality as a key problem; its emphasis on the local over the global; the support for greenness; and the need for a moral framework.
It is also worth noting in passing that even in relation to mainstream economic policy Cameron’s view, rightly or wrongly, was a long way from free-market orthodoxy. He explicitly supported monetary activism, arguing that in this sphere “the old rules should be torn up”. Cameron even supported the idea of a fiscal stimulus in principle. The main point differentiating him from other parties was his claim that Britain was not in a position to engage in such a stimulus.
Nor was Cameron’s speech in 2009 an aberration. He has made several others along similar lines since becoming prime minister in 2010. For example, in January this year he argued that the crisis should be used as an opportunity to improve capitalism and make it more popular. He used the opportunity to attack “corporate excess” and assert the need to challenge vested interests, including big business. Cameron also emphasised the need for corporate social responsibility (CSR).
Such ideas are in line with those of some of his key advisers. For instance, Phillip Blond has promoted “Red Tory” ideas, which combine economic egalitarianism with social conservatism. He attacks Margaret Thatcher’s individualism and instead talks of reviving a civic life with thousands of small-scale communities.
Steve Hilton, a close confidant of Cameron’s, was director of strategy for Number 10 until earlier this year. Hilton had previously advised companies on CSR and was another passionate advocate of local communities. Both Blond and Hilton are referred to as advocates of Cameron’s “Big Society”.
Despite slight differences in rhetoric, the broad thrust of the Labour Party’s attitude to responsible capitalism is remarkably similar to Cameron’s. Like the Conservative leader, Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, has often talked on the subject. Indeed, he gave a key speech on the same day as Cameron’s recent pronouncements cited above. Among the themes Miliband stressed were the damaging effects of inequality, the over-reliance on finance and the need for businesses to be “responsible”.
Like his Conservative counterpart, the Labour leader also has an intellectual guru. Maurice Glasman, ennobled in 2010, has a background as much in community organising as academia. This advocate of what has come to be known as “Blue Labour” is also preoccupied with the need to strengthen communities. He is highly critical of finance and advocates restrains on business in general. As Glasman advised the Labour Party in an article in the Guardian: “In its explanation of the crash it must point to the volatility and vice of finance capital and the necessity of a balance of power within the firm and stronger institutions to constrain capital and domesticate its destructive energy” (April 24, 2011).
If anything, the Liberal Democrats are even more comfortable with the notion of responsible capitalism than even the Conservatives or Labour. This is because the Lib Dems have long played the role of quintessential party of the middle: condemning the Tories for their ties to big business and Labour for its ties to organised labour.
From this perspective it is not surprising that both Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, and Vince Cable, the coalition business secretary, are fond of the moniker “pinstripe Scargills” to describe investment bankers. This gets across their disdain for what they see as greedy capitalists and their dislike for trade unions.
All the parties, therefore, emphasise similar themes. They all claim to be pro-business but at the same time they want it to behave ethically, fairly and responsibly. All are critical of what they regard as excessive remuneration – although there is a lot of room to debate exactly what constitutes excess. At various times they have also all complained about unscrupulous businessmen corrupting the political system. For all three parties, investment banking is the epitome of excess and greed in contemporary society.
This discussion among politicians is reflected among academics and the mainstream media. There is a substantial genre of books, including George Monbiot’s Captive State (2000) and Noreena Hertz’s The Silent Takeover (2001), alleging that big business has taken over and corrupted government. Even the Economist, widely seen as a free-market publication, has described itself as “pro-market, not pro-business” (June 26, 2003).
All this could be described as the anxious middle outlook. It is middle class in the literal sense of being nervous about the behaviour of big business and the mass of society. Its instinct is to curb what it regards as excess at both the top and bottom of the social ladder.
In relation to business, this means finding many ways to regulate its activity so that it does not lead to social fragmentation. For financial institutions in particular, this means tight new regulations on its operations.
Those who see this discussion as purely existing in the political realm are mistaken. Nor is it a matter of politicians imposing their views on an unwilling business community. On the contrary, corporate leaders have internalised this general anxiety about their own activities. Businesspeople are often the most avid advocates of the measures that have evolved to regulate business in recent years. The rejection of excess and fear of social fragmentation provides the foundation for the extensive new framework for business regulation that has emerged since the 1980s.
This is not simply a question of governments passing even more laws. Instead, it has meant the creation of new forms of regulation around a cluster of related concepts: business ethics; corporate governance; CSR; and sustainability. The rise of the importance of risk management within firms is a closely related development.
Take corporate governance as an example. Although the proper running of companies is not a new discussion, one study argues the term itself was not used before the 1980s.
Certainly, it was only in the 1990s that it became a central topic of debate (see box above, The rise of corporate governance). For more than two decades, companies have had to follow detailed rules on how they are organised and how remuneration is paid.
Despite the difference in terminology the debates about ethics, responsibility and sustainability all embody broadly similar themes. All assume that companies must accept limits on their activities. For environmental and social reasons, it is accepted that they must limit their footprints.
The flip side of this argument is that they should focus on other activities outside their traditional remit. By implication at least, they should lessen the priority accorded to growth and profits.
The rise of risk management is a parallel trend. It is now widely regarded as a core activity of business, rather than a specialist function.
Businesses are expected to be exceedingly cautious in all their operations. These themes are explored in more detail in The Timid Corporation (2003) by Ben Hunt, who is a fellow contributor to Fund Strategy, and Michael Power’s The Risk Management of Everything (2004).
Contemporary critics of corporations almost invariably argue that they are working within a well-defined tradition. Politicians, for instance, habitually claim the measures they propose are consistent with the best in the traditions they represent.
Such claims lack a proper sense of history. They project a false continuity into the past rather than seeking to identify what is novel about recent developments.
Three different examples help to illustrate this point. First, both businesses and politicians have become far more cautious than in the past. The days when businesses self-confidently pursued profits and politicians advocated unqualified economic growth are long gone. Nowadays, support for such goals is routinely surrounded by numerous caveats. Ambition and aspiration are recast as greed and excess.
Second, the main political parties are no longer pursuing their traditional roles. Labour has ceded its role as the political wing of the trade unions and the Conservatives are keen to keep some distance from big business. Both parties have moved closer to the Liberal Democrat terrain, seeing themselves as representatives of the respectable middle.
Finally, politics in its proper sense – as a clash of ideas and interests – no longer exists. Instead, politicians are expected to behave as altruistic souls. This shift explains why attempts by organised interests to influence government, which previously would have been seen as normal, are nowadays cast as improper.
The retreat from politics also helps explain the rise of CSR. Matters that in an earlier era would have been viewed as the province of politics are now often seen as under the purview of business. In that sense, CSR can be seen as an anti-political movement.
It is not necessary to be an avid free marketer to see problems with the developments sketched above (see box, Naked self-interest). The obsession with curbing excess is bad from both an economic and a political perspective.
On the business side, it means companies have to operate in a climate of extreme caution. Any attempt at bold initiatives is likely to be viewed with suspicion, fear and even hostility. It also means businesses have to negotiate a system of regulation of unprecedented complexity.
At the same time, what passes for politics has become degraded. Politicians no longer try to shape society on the basis of any kind of positive vision. Instead, their emphasis is on regulating the behaviour of both individuals and of corporations. The emphasis on responsibility amounts to a warning that everyone needs to be willing to follow prescriptive rules.
The responsible capitalism agenda presents a formidable barrier to the promotion of prosperity.
My essay on the fundamental distinction between supporting equality and curbing inequality is available on spiked Plus. To read the full essay now you need to contribute to spiked Plus – recommended if possible. Otherwise in time it will be available on spiked itself and on this website.
I have written this week’s Fund Strategy cover story on the debate about “responsible capitalism” in Britain. You can reading it by clicking on the link here and I will also paste the text onto this website over the next few days.
My Perspective column for this week’s issue of Fund Strategy looks at the debate about American decline. For a complementary view, which looks at the same subject from a different angle, it is worth reading the piece by Sean Collins on spiked. His focus is more on America itself whereas I look at the topic from an international and economic perspective.
One of the most heated and important themes of the American presidential campaign has gone little noticed on this side of the Atlantic. Can America maintain its position as the world’s leading power?
The subject was central to Barack Obama’s state of the union address to Congress in January, when he derided the ignorance of all those who point to American decline:
“Anyone who tells you that America is in decline or that our influence has waned, doesn’t know what they’re talking about. That’s not the message we get from leaders around the world, all of whom are eager to work with us. That’s not how people feel from Tokyo to Berlin; from Cape Town to Rio; where opinions of America are higher than they’ve been in years.
“Yes, the world is changing; no, we can’t control every event. But America remains the one indispensable nation in world affairs – and as long as I’m president, I intend to keep it that way.”
Obama was reacting to Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, who had accused him of losing faith in American power. “Our president thinks America’s in decline,” said Romney. “It is if he’s president, it’s not if I’m president. This is going to be an American century.”
Romney’s criticism evidently stung Obama. Just before his state of the union address the president reportedly received off-the-record briefings on the subject with leading news anchors. Obama reportedly leaned heavily on an article in the the New Republic by Robert Kagan, an historian and foreign policy commentator, on “the myth of American decline”.
It is a delicious irony that Kagan is a special adviser to Romney. Both the president and his main opponent are drawing on the same expert’s arguments to substantiate their cases that American decline is not inevitable.
Since then many other big-name experts, such as Joseph Nye of Harvard and William Russell Mead of Bard College in New York, have weighed in to put their own arguments on whether America can remain number one. Generally, perhaps not surprisingly, most have taken the view that America can maintain its leadership position. Although some of their arguments are questionable, they make some important points.
America’s advocates often point to the indisputable fact that it is still the world’s largest economy, substantially bigger and more advanced than its closest rival, China. They also highlight its lead in key technological sectors such as biotechnology and nanotechnology. A parallel argument is that America still leads the world in “soft power” – it is a leading cultural force thanks to its values and institutions, such as Hollywood and the internet.
Arguments about the resilience of the American economy are extremely important, although they often fudge a key distinction. The discussion of American decline is really two debates rather than one – absolute decline on one hand and, on the other, the related but distinct relative decline.
The discussion of absolute decline focuses on whether the American economy is likely to grow significantly in coming years or, in the worst-case scenario, shrink. There is no definitive answer to this question. It depends on whether politicians and business leaders can restructure the economy so that it can generate a new round of durable growth
In that sense, both Obama and Romney are right. The future of the economy will largely depend on the actions the country’s political leadership will take in the coming years.
But relative economic decline, America’s fall relative to the rest of the world, is a different question. In one sense it is a foregone conclusion. America’s share of global economic output has fallen from nearly 50% after the Second World War to about 20% today. Admittedly, its share after 1945 was artificially inflated by the destructive impact of the war, but the figure has steadily fallen from about 25% in 1989.
The question then becomes, can America maintain its leading political and cultural role given its falling share of the global economy? In many respects, America has done well to manage its decline over many years but it is not a given that it will continue to do so into the future.
America’s defenders point out that other leading nations have proved less resilient than America. The Soviet Union, once seen as a rival for global leadership, has collapsed. European states are caught in the eurozone crisis. Japan, once seen as a contender for global leadership, has a stagnant economy.
These points are all true but, in some respects, they confirm the reality of American decline. America has maintained its leadership largely because of the failures of others. Also, no single country, not even China, is anything like as powerful as America is now.
Nevertheless, America’s ability to influence events in the world is on the wane. Nor can the failure of others to take up the mantle of leadership in the past guarantee that it will not happen in the future.
A final set of arguments relates to the complexity of decline. For instance, although Britain lost its global leadership position to America, the two countries were allies for much of the twentieth century. Both nations joined forces to fight wars against Germany, rather than battling each other.
Once again the point is true, although its consequences are not as straightforward as its proponents suggest. Over the long term, given its substantial relative decline, it is hard to imagine America maintaining its leadership position in the world. Working out how the transition process will pan out is a different matter.
The German model of economic organisation has got a lot more coverage since I discussed it in relation to the British debate earlier this year (see posts of 20 February and 25 March). No doubt the high profile it has had in the French presidential election campaign, through its avid promotion by Nicolas Sarkozy, is a key factor. As a result this week’s Economist has a leader on the subject as well as a briefing article. Among the useful points made in its comment piece:
“Germany’s corporatist Mitbestimmung [participation] model, which gives workers a say in management, has made it easier both to push through structural reforms and to hold down wages.”
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