There follows my Fund Strategy Polemic column for July. For all the talk of a possible bubble in US technology stocks, the rise in the Nasdaq over the past year is dwarfed by the surge in the Shanghai and Shenzen stockmarket indices. Draw lines on the same graph representing percentage change over the past year […]
One of the biggest economic questions of the decade is undoubtedly whether China will succeed in changing its development model. Since the late 1970s the Asian giant has enjoyed spectacular success in transforming itself from a poor rural economy to a dynamic industrial power. The time has come to shift the balance even further towards […]
The biggest challenge facing the world economy is not the difficult economic conditions but what could be called gloomsters. These are the fatalists who think nothing much can be done about economic problems besides tinkering with monetary policy or public spending. Gloomsters are not what Margaret Thatcher long ago called “moaning minnies” . On the […]
The world’s economic fortunes depend more than ever on China’s performance. So when an expert claims that the Asian giant is facing formidable challenges his arguments should be considered carefully. Fraser Howie certainly qualifies as a specialist in Chinese finance. He has written three books on the subject including most recently Red Capitalism:The fragile financial foundations […]
This column was first published in the June edition of Fund Strategy. A momentous event in modern world history is scheduled for 2 November. That is the day China is scheduled to overtake America as the world’s largest economic power. The forecast is not by some crank but by Kaushik Basu, the chief economist at the […]
China becomes a more important component of the global economy with every day that passes. Although America remains the world’s largest economy, at least for a little while, the Chinese economy is by far the largest contributor to global growth. The slowdown in the growth of emerging economies in recent years only confirms this trend. […]
This is the text of a box within my latest Fund Strategy cover story on Japan. Tensions between Japan and its regional neighbours represent one of the greatest threats to any positive scenario for the country’s recovery. Strains in Asia more generally represent one of the gravest threats to global stability. The rows between Japan, […]
This is the main text of my recent Fund Strategy cover story on Japan’s experiment with “Abenomics”. Note that I had to be a guarded in expressing my own opinion as my brief was to write a feature based on the views of others. Three arrows held together cannot be broken, according to a Japanese […]
Western commentators are often far too quick to draw sweeping conclusions about China on the basis of limited knowledge. I was reminded of this tendency after following discussions about an article in the Financial Times about young Chinese allegedly shunning factory jobs. The article was based on an interview with Terry Gou, the founder of […]
This column was first published yesterday in Fund Strategy. What lessons, if any, does the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 provide for the present turmoil in the region? Both cases involved falling local currencies and capital flight as investor confidence evaporated but it is not immediately apparent if the similarities go any further. Nor is […]
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