This article first appeared in this week’s Fund Strategy magazine. Germany has, for the time being at least, replaced China as America’s lead villain in the world economy. The discussion of global economic imbalances is back but the main bogeyman this time around is European rather than Asian. America turned the heat up on Germany [...]
Western commentators are often far too quick to draw sweeping conclusions about China on the basis of limited knowledge. I was reminded of this tendency after following discussions about an article in the Financial Times about young Chinese allegedly shunning factory jobs. The article was based on an interview with Terry Gou, the founder of [...]
I had not expected the audience of Chinese financial regulators to laugh hysterically at my remarks on the eurozone economy. It took a further five minutes for their conversations in Mandarin to subside. The subject of my talk, the future of the eurozone, normally invites anxiety rather than mirth. My goal was to outline the [...]
This Fund Strategy cover story on “tapering” – the gradual reduction in monetary support for the economy by America’s Federal Reserve – was first published on 21 August. An accompanying chronology can be found here. Are central bankers preparing to turn down the money tap? The pronouncements by Ben Bernanke, the chairman of America’s Federal [...]
This is my Perspective column from this week’s Fund Strategy magazine. Many experts have long argued that the developed countries, particularly America, are switching towards a “knowledge economy” and away from industrial production. The trouble is, by some measures at least, this trend seems to have at least partially reversed recently. It is true that [...]
This is my Perspective column from this week’s Fund Strategy magazine. Some global trends get little attention in the British media. Those who only follow domestic television channels or newspapers would struggle to find news about the fraught relations between the world’s three largest economic powers. This tension manifested itself in a recent visit by [...]
This is my Perspective column from this week’s Fund Strategy magazine. Given the importance of China in the global economy it is becoming vital to understand mainland Chinese perspectives on key topics. This is not to contend that the Chinese are right on every matter. On the contrary, no doubt their comments are often one-sided. [...]
This is a feature I wrote for the January issue of IPE (Investment & Pensions Europe) magazine. Asia has more actual and potential flashpoints than a public fireworks display. Simply listing them all would take up a large part of this article. They range from long-standing military enmities, such as the conflict between the two Koreas, [...]
This Perspective column was first published in today’s edition of Fund Strategy. Whenever encountering any kind of forecast it is always best to remember a wise maxim: “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future”. The saying, or variations of it, is attributed to many different people. It is true of short-term forecasts [...]
This blog post was first published on Fundweb today. Those who believe that America’s recovery will lead it to regain its role as driver of the global economy are deluding themselves. Even leaving aside the flimsiness of America’s recent growth spurt it is many years since it was the engine of the world economy. For [...]
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