The fervent debate on whether America is suffering from “secular stagnation” reveals little about the economy but much about the bankrupt state of economics. There is little original in the discussion of the malady and even less of anything profound. Larry Summers, a former US Treasury secretary among many other things, kicked off the debate [...]
I must have missed it in my childhood for, despite liking cartoons, I do not recall ever coming across Scrooge McDuck. I certainly did not expect that many years later I would be alerted to the existence of the richest duck in the world by a billionaire fund manager. Bill Gross, the founder and chief investment officer [...]
It is hard to imagine any convincing moral defence of redistribution from the relatively poor to the wealthy. Yet that is precisely what seems to be happening with quantitative easing. Several important figures in the financial markets have raised this reverse Robin Hood effect recently. Nigel Wilson, the chief executive of Legal & General, described [...]
This column was first published on Wednesday in Fund Strategy. Financialisation is one of the most important trends in the world economy. It is also one of the most misunderstood. In the mainstream discussion the term generally refers to the ascendancy of finance. This can take many forms but the main thrust of the argument is [...]
I had not expected the audience of Chinese financial regulators to laugh hysterically at my remarks on the eurozone economy. It took a further five minutes for their conversations in Mandarin to subside. The subject of my talk, the future of the eurozone, normally invites anxiety rather than mirth. My goal was to outline the [...]
This article, more technical than most of my pieces, discusses the factors driving the gold price. It was first published in this month’s issue of IPE magazine. Gold probably evokes more passions than any other natural resource or even perhaps any asset class at all. For some it should be seen as more-or-less like any [...]
Today’s Financial Times includes two articles by me in its FT Wealth section. My profile of Bill Browder, an anti-Kremlin campaigner, is pasted below and I will upload my latest book review over the weekend. Bill Browder has a stark warning for western investors eyeing opportunities in Russia. “They are not only taking a financial [...]
This column was first published yesterday in Fund Strategy. What lessons, if any, does the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 provide for the present turmoil in the region? Both cases involved falling local currencies and capital flight as investor confidence evaporated but it is not immediately apparent if the similarities go any further. Nor is [...]
This is the main text for my latest Fund Strategy cover story that examines the state of the eurozone. The original layout in the magazine, including accompanying graphs, can be found here. Many have made such claims before but this time around there is significant evidence that the eurozone is finally recovering from its slump. [...]
This article, which is a bit more technical than normal, argues that in reality interest rates have already started to rise. Those who are obsessed with responding to the debate about “tapering” by America’s Federal Reserve could be doing the financial equivalent of fighting the last war. Credit is tightening whatever the unconventional measures being [...]
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